On Thursday, a senior researcher warned of a possible scenario in which Russian soldiers might cross the border into Estonia. The following day, Russian troops were seen at the border.
International experts and analysts have long cautioned that Russia may be entering the early stages of a potential conflict with NATO.
Last week, the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that Russia “is in phase 0 of moving toward a higher level of war than it is in now — such as a future war between Russia and NATO.”
According to ISW, this stage is characterized by “overt and covert attacks” on NATO countries, including sabotage, electronic warfare, violations of NATO airspace, and so-called false flag operations.
Russians spotted at Estonian border
On Friday, seven armed Russian soldiers were observed near the border with NATO member Estonia — an incident ISW describes as further evidence that Russia is in “phase 0” of potential conflict.
The soldiers were spotted in the “Saatse Boot,” a small stretch of road that briefly crosses Russian territory, according to Estonian outlet EER.
EER reports that Estonian border guards noted “increased activity from armed groups on the Russian side of the border.”
“We saw various armed groups moving along the border and in the immediate vicinity of it. Judging by their uniforms, they were definitely not border guards,” said Meelis Saarepuu, head of the border guard’s southern office.
“For us, it was a clear threat, and we had to temporarily stop traffic in the area.”
“The situation remains under control”
On Sunday, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna urged calm and warned against “exaggerating” the border incident.
“The Russians are acting more confidently and visibly than before, but the situation remains under control,” he wrote on X.
Echoes of Crimea
It has been eleven years since Russian President Vladimir Putin sent the so-called “little green men” into Crimea to seize control from the local government — an operation that led to Russia’s annexation of the peninsula.
Russia is testing NATO’s resolve
Senior researcher Flemming Splidsboel from the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) warned last week about a possible scenario in which Putin might briefly send troops across the Estonian border before pulling them back.
He agrees with ISW’s assessment that Russia is probing NATO defenses.
“This time it was seven soldiers in broad daylight, but next time it might be 60 soldiers sneaking across the border at night. Russia is pressure testing the NATO countries and, at the same time, asking questions of Donald Trump. The question is whether there will be an answer — or whether he’s too busy with Gaza or playing golf,” Splidsboel told TV 2.
According to Splidsboel, the growing number of hybrid attacks on Denmark and other European countries reflects Russia “testing a space of opportunity.”
“Previously, Russia used the small screwdriver — a few cyberattacks and acts of sabotage — and then the U.S. would respond with sanctions. But cracks in the Western alliance now give the Russians the confidence to use bigger tools on a larger stage,” he said.
Russia waging hybrid war, says Danish intelligence
On Friday, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) released a new assessment concluding that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war against NATO.
According to FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel, this means Russia “uses military means to, among other things, put pressure on us.”
The statement follows multiple drone sightings in Denmark and repeated Russian violations of European airspace — including in Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Romania.
“Gambling with war”
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, warned Monday that Russia is “gambling with war” after repeated airspace violations.
“Every time a Russian plane or drone violates our airspace, there is a risk of escalation — whether intentional or not,” Kallas said during a visit to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, told lawmakers Monday that Russia would not hesitate to attack a NATO country if it saw an opportunity.
According to Jaeger, Russia’s goal is to “frighten Europe into paralysis and surrender.” He also warned that estimates suggesting Russia won’t be ready for a new large-scale war until 2029 may be overly optimistic — emphasizing that such an attack could come sooner.
